24
thats very optimistic but i doubt it
i think its going to be extremely close
firstly, most of the "new" voters voted for the government it seems. that's because it made a big difference compared to the primaries that they "sorted out" their differences and supported the presidential candidate, and also a big difference is that in these real elections, the local candidates (mayors, gobernors, various legislative positions) were playing for their own skin too, so they supported and mobilized as much as they could
secondly, we don't know this yet, but there will probably be a high percentage of yellow voters who will not vote or vote blank (butthurt over being replaced as the main opposition, also combined with butthurt against the mileists who called them retards, and also because of the big fear campaign that the Big Media (cambiemites) did against MIlei(which heavily backfired because it helped the government instead of them)
and thirdly, well we'll see just how many Radicals there still are, because in the yellow coalition you have the Pro(macri's party) but also a shit ton of random-ass retards like the Radicals, some fat lady's party, random Socialists and random Peronists who switched sides or were ejected. The Radicals as a party seem to have almost entirely treasoned Macri and gone with the government, but i dont know about them as an electorate group. some people think the government's big rise was because many Larreta voters went to Massa (about 5% from his 10%)
if the Radicals are completely out then they also wont lend their support for the actual electoral process (getting people to vote, replenishing the ballots, counting the votes), which will also be bad for Milei
something to support this is that for SOME reason the "useful vote" thing didn't really come into play and there wasn't a huge run from Bullrich voters to Milei. maybe they really did think they could get into the 2nd round, or maybe they're really just that butthurt at him, or just generally not liking his proposals (lets not forget hes an ancap)
as far as the Cordoba guy's voters though, yeah from all i've heard i think the grand majority of those will go for Milei, theyre really anti-K in Cordoba and some other parts of the productive interior. Massa only got like 10% in Cordoba. Milei could feasibly get 80% of the vote there.