>LDP 191
>CDP 148
>Ishin 38
>Independent 34
>DPP 28
>Komeito 24
>Reiwa 9
>JCP 8
>Sanseito 3
>CPJ 3
>SDP 1
Shit's fucked. No one can form a government because they need 233, completely realign the ruling coalition, or reach out to fickle independents. Right now, the likely coalitions are as follows.
>LDP-Komeito 215
>LDP-Ishin 229 (likely less)
>CDP-Ishin-DPP 214
These don't look good at all. It'll be a minority government unless a huge, unstable coalition forms. Kenta Izumi, last month's leader of the CDP, floated the idea of a LDP-CDP coalition to prevent radicals, but there's no way that's happening.
Ishiba has said he won't pursue any coalition other than LDP-Komeito at this time, despite saying immediately before the election that Japan must not let the opposition win. This is likely due to many LDP politicians polling that they should maintain the Komeito coalition.
Tomorrow, the CDP, Ishin, and DPP will hold a trilateral meeting in Tokyo to discuss forming a coalition, but we'll have to wait to see the results of that. This is following a meeting between the CDP and DPP over forming a coalition, so CDP-DPP will happen unless the DPP demanded that it will only join if Ishin joins to check the CDP's power. However, Ishin is internally divided between pro- and anti-LDP, hence their disastrously incompetent management this election which dropped them from "potential CDP replacement" to "new Komeito". Whoever bags them could lose many of Ishin's seats to a new party who would then join the opposing coalition.
Sanseito and the CPJ have said they would want to join the ruling coalition, the later with the demanding that Ishiba be replaced, but doing so might eject the moderates and center-right of the LDP, likely to the new opposition coalition. However, LDP-Ishin-CPJ-Sanseito would barely eek out enough seats, so it must be seriously considered by the LDP and whoever Ishin ejects. However, it would mean the CPJ and Sanseito would control politics.
It would be really funny if the opposition coalition turned into CDP-Ishin-DPP-Sanseito-CPJ, but I doubt it. The CDP's new leader would probably be down for it since he wants to kill the LDP and make the CDP the new rightist party, but, as another anon commented, Ishin is incompatible with the two on economics. However, the DPP has taken a hard right turn on foreign influence, now calling for foreigners to be banned from owning land, making political donations, and voting, which puts them between Ishin and the CPJ and Sanseito on the issue. This said, the JCP has expressed interest in a CDP coalition in polling.
Ishin won all of Osaka but lost seats overall. However, the PR nightmare of completely losing a major city will haunt the LDP.
Since they received 2% of the popular vote, the CPJ are now a national party, meaning they will receive public funding, be able to stand in public debates, receive far more news coverage, etc. Sanseito has won two seats, putting them in the national spotlight as well.
Komeito has expressed a desire to cut itself off from the ruling coalition, but I don't think it will join the opposition coalition unless said coalition is desperate.
Top ranking members of the LDP and Komeito are already resigning from their positions in exodus, and the LDP is complaining heavily about Ishiba. If he resigns, he'll have had the shortest run as a prime minister in history. The Abe faction has seen a massive loss, but Ishiba's faction hasn't done well either.
Things are going to get worse for the LDP if they don't do something fast. The LDP might move hard right. Many of its politicians, even those who ran on gay marriage, are now saying they are against it.
Also during this election, Koki Oozora (25) of the LDP became the youngest member of the Diet in history. Komeito wasted funds on a rap video campaign ad, and the JCP did the same on a response rap video campaign ad. Former NHK leader Tachibana is being prosecuted for stalking Otsu.
>>1218396
53% of the population voted, but this is the third lowest post-war amount.